Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Slovenia
  • New Zealand
  • Luxembourg
  • Thailand

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,244$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(426 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,184.3}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,184.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $100$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(13.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-05-25

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,746$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(7.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,023.3}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(30,023.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,913$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(331 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,876.8}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,876.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $633$ on 2020-05-25

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $230,158$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{224,294.5}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(224,294.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32,877$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,855.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(31,855.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55,300$ on 2020-05-25

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,662,302$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.56 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,666,674.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 47.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,666,674.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $98,220$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(8.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,933.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 44.8)}}\) (asimptote \(98,933.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,184,925$ on 2020-05-25

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $262,547$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{268,323.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(268,323.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,996$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,137.9}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(36,137.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $224,390$ on 2020-05-25

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $33,843$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,512.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 57.8)}}\) (asimptote \(36,512.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,029$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(384 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,071.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,071.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,843$ on 2020-05-25

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $180,600$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.71 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{172,644.1}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(172,644.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,309$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,158.4}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,158.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,092$ on 2020-05-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Slovenia recovered 99%
New Zealand recovered 98%
Luxembourg recovered 96%
Thailand recovered 96%
Switzerland recovered 96%
Austria recovered 92%
Croatia recovered 91%
Korea, South recovered 91%
Australia recovered 90%
Andorra recovered 90%
Tunisia recovered 89%
Germany recovered 85%
Estonia recovered 84%
Slovakia recovered 83%
Japan recovered 82%
Cuba recovered 81%
Niger recovered 80%
Israel recovered 78%
Denmark recovered 78%
Turkey recovered 59%
Uruguay recovered 57%
Czechia recovered 54%
Italy recovered 49%
Georgia recovered 47%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 44%
Serbia recovered 35%
Romania recovered 29%
Jamaica recovered 27%
San Marino recovered 25%
Hungary recovered 24%
Morocco recovered 23%
Singapore recovered 22%
Paraguay recovered 13%
Bulgaria recovered 5%

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,469$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(481 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,455.2}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,455.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(20.8 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104.1}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(104.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16$ on 2020-05-25

New Zealand⮸

Population $4,822,233$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,504$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(438 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,483.1}{1 + 10^{-0.098 (t - 26.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,483.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(5.83 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21.0}{1 + 10^{-0.098 (t - 20.6)}}\) (asimptote \(21.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22$ on 2020-05-25

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,993$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(984 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,829.9}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,829.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(24.6 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.6}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 28.6)}}\) (asimptote \(105.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $102$ on 2020-05-25

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,042$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,975.5}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 19.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,975.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $57$ on 2020-05-25

Best fit exponential: \(28.1 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55.5}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 10.6)}}\) (asimptote \(55.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57$ on 2020-05-25